《参考消息》2006年8月5日第4版：“石油瘾”显出痛苦症状
【英国《每日电讯报》8月1日文章】题：石油“瘾”面临痛苦的脱瘾症状Oil 'addicts' face painful withdrawal symptoms
By Tom Stevenson
(Filed: 01/08/2006)
What is the most important number in the world? It was 73.39 yesterday lunchtime, while in the run-up to Christmas 1998 it was just 10.75. Lord Browne thinks it will be 40 again while Goldman Sachs believes it willh______①100. （1）It is, of course, the price in dollars of a barrel of oil.
Thevalueof the world's most significant commodity is important because, as George Bush noted recently, we are "addicted to oil" and there are no areas of our economic life that are not affected by its cost.
Ith_______②needs pointing out, therefore, that the seven-fold rise in the price of oil in eight years is a problem. With the growth of the US economy slowing sharply in the second quarter, it seems self-evident that we are navigating dangerous waters.
The reason the oil price has soared is simple. （2）Demand is growing at 2pc-3pc a year while production is slowly but surely declining as the world's giant oil-fields dry up.
Since oil was first produced commercially in the US in the 1850s, supply has increased to meet growing demand. For the first time in 150 years that is no longer the case for a couple of reasons.
First, a combination ofn_______③and manmade disasters and conflicts from the Gulf of Mexico to Iraq and Nigeria has forced the rest of the world to jam open thespigots[1]to satisfy demand.
（3）After years of underinvestment when the oil price was in the doldrums[2], we simply cannot pump any faster and rectifying that situation could take years.
Second, if you believe the gloom-mongers, we are fast running out of commercially exploitable oil reserves. There is considerable debate about how close we are to a peak in the global production of oil but there is aw_______④of expert opinion that suggests we are close to that tipping point today.
（A）______________________________________.（中国今天的石油消耗量已经从上个世纪90年代初的每天300万桶增加到每天700万桶，增长了一倍〔double〕以上。）In India consumption has also doubled to around 2.5 million barrels a day.
If you consider that the US, with a population of something like an eighth of those two combined, gets through 20 million barrels a day, you get a sense of the potential for the supply/demand equation to deteriorate.
A number of conclusions can be drawn from this grim picture. Here are six, but there are many more:
（4）First, persistently high energy prices are most probably here to stay. Although oil producers like Lord Browne are obviously beneficiaries of a high price, they have a vested interest[3] in not scaring the horses.The most profitable scenario for them is a price that keeps the world economy humming so they are bound to claim everything is rosy.
Second, a high oil price should finally fuel the development of alternative energy sources. Merrill Lynch estimates that with oil priced between $50 and $70 a barrel, coal, natural gas, nuclear, hydro, wind and geothermal energy sources are all relatively competitive. Only hydrogen fuel cells and solar energy still look too expensive to be viable substitutes. Big corporations around the world are snapping up small wind and biofuel businesses and that process hasb______⑤begun.
Third, thestellar[4]growth in the global economy in recent years looks likely to slow.（B）_______________________. （我们已在美国初见端倪。）
Fourth, we should expect the world to remain unstable as long as the US believes it can fend off the day of reckoning by grabbing what remains of the world's hydrocarbon reserves by force.
（5）Fifth, there will be changes in how we order our societies in terms of transport infrastructure and urban planning to reflect the end of cheap oil.Trains can move the same weight of cargo approximately 100 times as far as a plane for the same amount of fuel.
Finally, the best investment gains of the past 25 years have been from companies benefiting from a world of cheap oil. I expect the next few years to see the baton handed on from the consumers to the providers of increasingly expensive energy and commodities.
NOTES:
[1]spigot n.（木桶）塞子
[2]in the doldrums意气消沉；不景气
[3]vested interest既得利益
[4]stellar adj.恒星的；明星的；一流的，主要的
试一试：
1．根据首字母提示和译文，填入适当单词：
①while Goldman Sachs believes it willh______100（而高盛公司认为它将冲上100）（动词）
②Ith_______needs pointing out（毋庸置疑）（副词）
③n_______and manmade disasters（天灾人祸）（形容词）
④there is aw_______of expert opinion that suggests we are close to that tipping point today.（大量专家意见认为我们如今正在接近那个引爆点。）（名词）
⑤that process hasb______begun（这个进程刚刚开始）（名词）
参考答案：
①hit ②hardly ③natural ④wealth ⑤barely
2．翻译划线部分英文：
参考答案：
（1）它就是以美元计算的每桶石油的价格。
（2）石油需求正在以每年2%至3%的速度增长，而随着世界巨型油田趋于枯竭，石油产量正在缓慢并且确定无疑地下降。
（3）经历了石油价格陷入低谷导致数年投资不足之后，我们根本没有能力加快开采速度，而扭转这个局面可能需要若干年时间。
（4）第一，持续居高不下的能源价格极有可能继续保持高价位。虽然诸如布朗勋爵这样的石油生产商显然是高油价的受益者，可是保持油价平稳，他们也有既得利益。
（5）第五，我们在交通运输设施和城市计划方面应该重新安排社会秩序，以反映廉价石油时代已经结束的现实。
3．根据译文，写出句子：
参考译文： （A）Oil consumption has more than doubled in China from 3 million barrels a day in the early 1990s to about 7 million today.
（B）We are already seeing the first signs of this in America.（是不是您的翻译与原文相去甚远？这不奇怪，同一意思表达方式成千上万，只要您愿意尝试学习作者的用法，您就达到学习的目的了。）
《参考消息》译文全文：
【英国《每日电讯报》8月1日文章】题：石油“瘾”面临痛苦的脱瘾症状 作者汤姆-史蒂文森
世界上最重要的数字是什么？是昨天中午的73.39。而1998年圣诞节前夕，它还只有10.75。布朗勋爵英国石油公司首席执行官认为它将再次回到40，而高盛公司认为它将冲上100。它就是以美元计算的每桶石油的价格。
正如布什总统最近指出的，这种世界上最值得关注的初级产品的价格之所以重要，是因为我们有“石油瘾”，而我们的经济生活中没有任何一个领域不受其价格的影响。
毋庸置疑，石油价格八年间涨了6倍的确是个问题。随着美国经济第二季度增幅大减，我们正航行在危险的水域。
油价飞涨的原因很简单。石油需求正在以每年2%至3%的速度增长，而随着世界巨型油田趋于枯竭，石油产量正在缓慢并且确定无疑地下降。
自从19世纪50年代美国开始进行商业性石油生产以来，为满足需求增长，供应也在不断增长。由于若干原因，150年来情况第一次发生了变化。
首先，从墨西哥湾到伊拉克和尼日利亚，天灾人祸以及战争冲突迫使世界其他地区争先恐后地打开栓塞，以满足需求。
经历了石油价格陷入低谷导致数年投资不足之后，我们根本没有能力加快开采速度，而扭转这个局面可能需要若干年时间。
其次，如果你相信前景暗淡之说，那么可以认为我们正在迅速用尽可开采的石油蕴藏。关于我们现在究竟多么接近全球石油产量顶峰，争论颇大。但是，大量专家意见认为我们如今正在接近那个引爆点。
中国今天的石油消耗量已经从上个世纪90年代初的每天300万桶增加到每天700万桶，增长了一倍以上。印度的石油消耗量也翻了一番，达每天250万桶左右。
如果考虑到人口只有中印总人口八分之一左右的美国每天消费石油2000万桶的话，你就能感觉到供需平衡趋于恶化的潜在危险了。
透过这个暗淡的景象可以得出大量结论。下面有六种结论，但实际上还有很多。
第一，持续居高不下的能源价格极有可能继续保持高价位。虽然诸如布朗勋爵这样的石油生产商显然是高油价的受益者，可是保持油价平稳，他们也有既得利益。对他们而言，最有利可图的情况就是油价保持在维持世界经济繁荣活跃的水平，这样他们就可以宣称形势一片大好。
第二，高油价最终将促进替代能源资源的开发利用。美林公司估计，当油价升至每桶50美元至70美元之间时，煤、天然气、核电、水力、风力和地热等能源资源的竞争力就相对提高。只有氢燃料电池和太阳能仍然显得太过昂贵，难以成为切实可行的替代能源。世界各地的大公司都在迅速抓住小型风力发电和生物燃料等领域的业务，而这个进程刚刚开始。
第三，全球经济近年来的显著增长看来很可能要放慢。我们已在美国初见端倪。
第四，只要美国认为它能通过武力攫取世界剩余的石油蕴藏，我们就可以预料世界将继续处于不稳定状态。
第五，我们在交通运输设施和城市计划方面应该重新安排社会秩序，以反映廉价石油时代已经结束的现实。以同等数量的燃料计算，运输同等重量的货物，火车运送的距离是飞机的近100倍。
最后，今后几年，投资收益将从消费者手中转移到日益昂贵的能源和初级产品供应商手中。
“石油瘾”显出痛苦症状
2023-01-07英汉翻译
