以下文章由作文地带专家团编辑-小金翻译，原创文章，转载请注明出处！
LiuxuePaper Editor Note：The year 2009 has just passed. Now we are embracing the year 2010. It's that time of year again to have a brief review of the performance in 2009 and to discuss the outlook of 2010. But
today my discussion is only confined to the Hong Kong's stock market, Chinese Enterprise Share (H Share) in particularly. And let's analyse it from two perspectives: fundamental and liquidity.
2009年已经过去了，我们一起来展望2010年。在这里我们对二零零九年做一个简要回顾，并且一起来展望2010年。但今天的讨论只局限于本港的股票市场（H股） 与 大陆市场（作文地带建议您将此话翻译为：香港股市，中国企业股（H股））。让我们从两个角度对它进行分析：基本面与流动资金。
1. Generally speaking, the Hong Kong's market in 2009 was extremely choppy and volatile. But the overall trend is good. The Heng Seng Index gained about 50% and the Chinese Enterprise Index was also up more
than 65%.
总体来说，香港市场在2009年充满了动荡和波动。但总体形势是好的。恒生指数指数涨幅达50%，中国大陆股市也同样也有了65%的涨幅。
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Fundamental:
基本面：
At the beginning of the year, the market was hit hard by the international financial crisis and gradually(收复) lost ground. But after the unprecedented joint effort made by the international community, the bottom started emerging in March. The impact of the international financial crisis to China is relatively small except in export sector. The result of the 4 trillion RMB stimulus package rolled out by the Chinese government could be clearly seen in the 2nd quarter. Many Chinese Companies picked up their profits in the 3rd quarter. The confidence of investors started building up. Nobody doubt about China will also achieve above 8% GDP growth in 2009.
在新的一年来临之际，市场在经历了金融危机的动荡后，正在逐步恢复（向好）。但在国际社会作出史无前例的联合努力下，市场从3月份触底后开始恢复。此次金融危机对中国的冲击除了出口业外其他都比较小。我国政府在推出4万亿元人民币的经济刺激一揽子计划，在第二季度可以清晰地看到。许多中国的企业在第三季度重拾信心。投资者信心也开始重新建立。没有人再相信在2009年中国还会出现高达8%以上的GDP（作文地带提示您：GDP:国内生产总值）增长率。
Liquidity:
流动资金方面：
Because of the low interest rate policy in the US and other major economies and the speculation on the appreciation of Chinese currency, The foreign financial institutions borrowed cheap money from low interest rate and low growth nations, such as the US and Japan, then invested them into the economies in the relatively high interest rate and high growth nations, such as China. But not every foreign investor can easily buy Chinese asset inside China except those got quota through the QFII (Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor) scheme. To work around this, therefore many of this hot money flows into Hong Kong to buy the H Share (Chinese Enterprise Shares). This phenomenon provided excessive liquidity to Hong Kong's financial system, underpinning the V shape rebound of Hong Kong stock market. According to the figures released by HONG KONG MONETARY UTHORITY, the INTERBANK LIQUIDITY CLOSING AGGREGATE BALANCE, from HK$150 billion at the beginning of 2009 increased to HK$300 billion at the end of 2009.
由于在美国和其他主要经济体和对人民币升值投机的低利率政策指引下，比如美国和日本的外资金融机构通过低利率向低增长国家借取大量的廉价资金。然后把这些钱投入到相对高利率和高增长的经济体国家，比如中国。但并不是所有的外资都能够很轻而易举的到中国买中国的资产，除了那些通过QFII（合格境外机构投资者）获得一定额度的投资权利，其他投资机构是不允许的。但他们用其他方法，让大量热钱流入香港，购买H股。此举让香港金融承载了过多的流动资金，形成一道V形支撑，让香港股市得以反弹。据“HONG KONG MONETARY UTHORITY”公布的数字显示，从2009年初到2009年底，香港银行业内流动资金从从1,500亿港币增长到3000亿港币。
2. What the market is going to be like in 2010?
I am optimistic on the outlook of 2010. We are likely to see the Hong Kong market to be a bit less volatile. The Heng Seng Index might be fluctuating from 20,000 to 24,000. We also might see oil hit $90 a barrel. LiuxuePaper.com
2010年市场走势如何呢？
对于2010年的展望我是持乐观的态度。我们会看到香港市场是一个波动小的市场面。恒生指数会从20,000点增长到24,000点。油价或许可以达到90美元线。作文地带
Fundamental:
基本面：
The global economies are recovering. The emerging economies are taking the leading role in this recovery, China is in particular. Chinese central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said in his New Year Message:
China will continue "moderately loose” monetary policy. President Hu Jintao said the government will pay more attention to the quality of growth this year, continue to adjust the structure of the economy and make the development model is more sustainable. And Premier Wen Jiabao said on Dec. 27 that China won’t make the mistake of ending stimulus policies too soon. It is widely believed that china will enjoy a growth rate between 9% and 10% in 2010. Many Chinese companies are expected to report stronger earnings. The figures shows even the situation in the worst hit export sector also has been slightly improved by the benefit of global demand recovery.[page]分页标题[/page]
世界经济在复苏。新兴经济体正在复苏中起到主导作用，尤其是中国。中国人民银行行长 周小川 在他的新年致辞中如是说：中国将继续“适度松动”的货币政策。胡锦涛主席说，政府将会更加重视今年高质量的经济增长。继续调整经济结构，可持续发展的发展模式。温家宝总理在12月27日发表讲话：说中国不会过早错误的终止经济刺激政策。业界都乐观的认同，2010年中国经济增长率将保持在9%到10%之间。众多的中国企业在今年将会有更为强劲的收益。这些数字表明，即使是受影响最严重的出口型企业，也在全球需求的不断改善下，慢慢的复苏。
Hong Kong's stock market is very much tied up with China mainland's economy and policies.
香港股市在很大的程度上依靠于大陆的经济政策指导。
Liquidity:
从流动资金面来看：
The recent figures show the US's economy is recovering. But as most economists believe the recovery is going to be a slow, long and difficult one. The unemployment rate is still higher than 10%. The home sales number is still low. It is very unlikely the FED will change their interest rate any time in 6 months. So the situation of excessive liquidity in Hong Kong will remain unchanged for a long while.
最新数据表明，美国经济正在恢复当中，但是很多的经济学家都认为此次金融危机冲击的回复时间将会非常长，而且会非常缓慢。失业指数还保持在10%以上。家庭收入仍旧保持低点。很不幸的是，在未来6个月内的任何时间，美联储将
不会改变其利率。所以香港的流动性过剩问题还是会保持很长一段时间。
At the same we also can see the increasing risk and challenge that China's economy is facing, such as industrial overcapacity; weakness in export; inflate asset bubbles etc. But I have confidence that Chinese government can properly handle those problems. Nobody has the crystal ball. Only time can tell what will happen in the future. So we must keep a close watch on the market and the government policies and adjust our investment strategies accordingly.
于此同时，我们也可以看到中国当前经济面临越来越多的风险和挑战，比如：工业产能过剩；资产泡沫膨胀等等。但是我坚信中国政府能够妥善处理这些问题。没有人拥有可以占卜的“水晶球”。只有时间可以告诉我们将来会发生什么。因此，我们必须继续密切关注市场动态和政府的政策以及不断调整我们相应的投资策略（作文地带Note：以不变应万变很好的策略）。
作文地带(LiuxuePaper.com)重点词汇提示：
GDP:gross domestic product 国内生产总值
